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Why Osama bin Laden Could Still Destroy America February 10, 2008

Posted by chuckwh in Al Gore, bin Laden, Iran, Iraq, John McCain, McCain, News and politics.
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It’s rarely talked about these days during the waning moments of the Gore Presidency, but one of Osama bin Laden’s stated goals with the attacks on September 11, 2001 was to send America into an impulsive and costly reaction. Analysts both in the United States and the Middle East say that had America done “what Osama wanted it to do”, in the words of one of them, America would have become engaged in a costly, unwinnable war in a place like Iraq or Iran.

Today, an analysis released by the Brookings Institute reveals for the first time some projections into the toll such a wide-ranging engagement by the United States might have taken on the federal budget. The study considers two nightmare scenarios.

The first assumes that shortly after the attacks, an unnerved and jingoistic American president for some reason follows the advice of neo-conservatives and attacks Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein. The Brookings Institute developed computerized projections based on current military operational costs and estimates that an initial invasion would have cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 billion, which would immediately have thrown the nation back into deficit spending. In a most positive scenario, and assuming that the invasion went well, the final cost would probably total half a trillion bucks, just to clean up afterwards and try to provide some rudimentary nation building.

However, the analysis then goes on to say that a clean sweep would be highly unlikely because Iraq has a multitude of edgy ethnic fault lines that weren’t revealed during Saddam’s iron grip. These fault lines, according to the study, would quickly expose themselves and the country could even devolve into a civil war before the Americans left. If that happened, the result would be catastrophic, keeping America tied down “for years,” according to the report. The cost of such a war would trickle down into other parts of the economy, either impacting federal dollars that would normally flow to key programs (if somehow a deficit were to be avoided) or sucking the federal treasury dry and leading to massive deficits. The report paints a horrific world where the world has turned on America for invading a sovereign nation, and stops buying or starts dumping American treasury bonds, among other things. It paints a scary world where the dollar begins a free fall and even begins signs of a collapse. From that point, the analysis says any number of other trickle down effects could occur, from an implosion of real estate prices to a collapse of entire industries.

Basically, according to the report, the U.S. would have played right into Osama’s strategy.

But it gets worse. The second scenario describes the costs of a war with Iran (before the current détente) and goes on to describe a near apocalypse as the war, even within the scope of an American victory, drains the economy completely and leads to an unprecedented economic collapse, with an unsympathetic world cheering on.

As it is, the Gore Administration did attack Afghanistan, a risky tactic, says the analysis, considering the complex tribal nuances of that nation. Luckily, Osama was found fairly quickly and eliminated, and that ended the discussion, along with that war, and Afghanistan is today a thriving nation.

So what’s the point of such a wild, almost impossible to believe scenario and releasing it to a satisfied, happy nation enjoying sustained economic growth and prosperity? Perhaps it is the recent gains of John McCain, and his apparent primary victory. McCain has said he will roll back the diplomatic carpet with Iran and close the recently opened embassies because of Iran’s intransigence “in world affairs”.  “We should be poking them in the eye,” he has said, “not trying to see where we see eye to eye.”

In other words, if McCain wins the Presidency, Osama may roll over in his grave, just to applaud.

Panel recommends that U.S. lower its profile in Iraq September 6, 2007

Posted by chuckwh in Al Gore, Gore, Iran, Iraq, President Gore.
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An independent panel led by the heirs of Orville Redenbacher is recommending that businesses and organizations in Iraq that have direct ties to the U.S. lower their profile. “There is a mythology that Iran happened because a dictator ruled the country,” said the spokesperson for the panel, Christiane Amanpour, “but we would argue that what happened was that Iran experienced a shockwave, and that the Ayatollahs were merely a symptom of a larger backlash against Western materialism. Conditions are ripe for the same thing to happen in Iraq today.”

Iraq, as everyone knows, is the new glam child of the Middle East, but its Shi’ite population is becoming a bit restive.

Samarra University Enrollment To 225,000 June 14, 2007

Posted by chuckwh in 9-11, Al Gore, death squads, Iraq, Iraq War, Samarra, Terrorism.
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Samarra University, a sprawling network of university campuses in Iraq, today announced that it had admitted its 225,000th student. The university, named for the town where the Al-Askari mosque stands, was founded by Shia clerics under the auspices of the Hijric Collective and has campuses scattered throughout Iraq. Its most recent campus was opened in Basra late this year.

Since 2001 the Iraqi university system has become the most robust in the Middle East. For example, Baghdad University has grown from 34,555 students (1988 numbers) to nearly 90,000, mostly through its two new campuses. The Foundation of Technical Institutes has grown from 35,000 students (also 1988) to 70,000, a growth that also can be attributed to new campuses in Mosul and Basra. In addition, the Hijric Collective has opened up a number of smaller universities (in addition to the Hijric Samarra University) with a somewhat Islamic-focused curriculum. Although this makes conservative American politicians nervous, so far the results are encouraging, with about 35% of the first wave of graduates moving on to post-bachelor work at the larger universities, and the rest into such fast-growing Iraqi professions as civil engineering, accounting, and IT.

Former V.P. Joe Lieberman Released From Psychiatric Hospital March 28, 2007

Posted by chuckwh in Al Gore, Iraq, Joe Lieberman, Neo-cons, News and politics.
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Former Vice President Joe Lieberman was released today from a Connecticut psychiatric hospital today nearly five years after his famous rant in the Senate chambers urging President Gore to invade Iraq “post-haste.” Lieberman, who was diagnosed as having Dissociative identity disorder after a series of speeches shortly after 9/11 that seemed to reflect changes in left/right philosophy on an almost daily basis, was released after the hospital was able to conclude conclusively that Lieberman was, in fact, a Republican. Joe is released
“Joe has been a model patient,” said Dr. Anton Fesk, “and it appears his confusion about who he is, this haunting struggle he’s faced reaching out and finding nothing, is finally over. He is solidly in the Republican camp, where he promises to remain for life.”

Lieberman was replaced as vice-president early in the Gore administration by Hillary Clinton, who is now running for the Democratic presidential nomination.

His plans are unknown, and it is also unknown whether there is any treatment for being a modern day Republican, despite recent suggestions within the psychiatric community that some provision for the affliction be provided in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM).

New Report on Iraq Charts Growth February 3, 2007

Posted by chuckwh in 9-11, Al Gore, Economy & Business, Election 2008, George W. Bush, Gore, Iraq, News and politics, Politics, Terrorism, World Trade Center.
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The new U.S. government-released National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq is providing some of the most comprehensive numbers on Iraq growth since President Gore’s Bill of Hope authorized billions for education programs across the Middle East. Total literacy has jumped from an estimated 50% in 2001 to nearly 88% in late 2006, according the report (parts of which were provided by UNESCO).

Baghdad University has grown from 34,555 students (1988 numbers) to nearly 90,000, mostly through its two new campuses. The Foundation of Technical Institutes has grown from 35,000 students (also 1988) to 70,000, a growth that also can be attributed to new campuses. In addition, the Hijric Collective has opened up a number of smaller universities (in addition to the Hijric Samarra University) with a somewhat Islamic-focused curriculum. This makes some American politicians nervous, but so far the results are encouraging, with about 35% of the first wave of graduates moving on to post-bachelor work at the larger universities.

The new Samarra University is by far the largest in the Midde East, with some 200,000 students spread among 14 widely dispersed and quickly built campuses.

The first wave of Samarra graduates hit the street only recently, and no figures are available yet on what they’re up to, but indications are that their interests are split among a few distinct areas. The largest contingent of graduates seems to be migrating towards the glamour of Qadisiyah Expressway, the growing high-tech hub that has sprouted in Central Baghdad. The next largest groups are evenly split between teachers, lawyers, doctors, and engineers.

Unemployment in Iraq is now at about 8%, a high number, the report notes, considering all of the infrastructure projects that have been initiated by the BOH since 2001, but much better than the 30% or so estimated at the time of the fall of Saddam (who was basically shown the door after the population saw how well Iraqis were doing in the Shia south and Kurdish north).

The oil industry boom has already prompted the Iraqi government to offer to repay some BOH expenditures for 2006, even though BOH funds were grants, not loans,. Meanwhile, no BOH money has been spent this year by the Iraqi government. Negotiations are now under way to transfer 2007 BOH funds to Sudan, which has been reeling under internecine unrest for several years, but many obstacles remain (primarily on who to give the money to, because the Republican-forced compromise for getting the BOH passed in the first place mandates that no BOH money can go to UN-chartered services).

The report notes that one of the trickle down effects of the rise of the oil industry in Iraq has been a massive growth in small businesses, which also have benefited from the tough standards imposed on BOH beneficiaries that mandate simple legal processes for starting a new business, instead of high taxes and a morass of red tape. The BOHBA (Bill of Hope Business Administration) has, additionally, released nearly $2 billion in business loans in Baghdad alone since the bill was passed. An escrow was established early on that allows the loans to be transferred to an Iraqi financial authority, which means that yet another portion of BOH funds will ultimately be repaid.

That, in fact, is one of the most encouraging aspects of the new report. The U.S. has poured billions into Iraq and other Middle East countries in an effort to improve conditions there, and now some of that money is showing signs of coming back.

I remember when 9-11 happened and thinking to myself that we were at war. But today, the men responsible for that attack are nothing more than a fringe group wandering around aimlessly in Waziristan, unable to even move East or West because they’re surrounded by committed democracies dedicated to destroying what’s left of them.

Something tells me this could have all gone much differently. After the incursion into Afghanistan, Al-Queda went on the run, vowing their revenge, but nothing happened. But Gore didn’t stop there. He then looked at the root causes that might have prompted such anger, and reached out to a people few Americans at the time understood.

The world is richer for it, in more ways than one.

Al Gore’s “October Surprise” November 6, 2006

Posted by chuckwh in 9-11, Al Gore, Bush, Congressional ethics, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Gore, Iraq, Neo-cons, Neo-conservatives, News and politics, Politics, Scandals, Terrorism.
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Al Gore today, in a surprise pre-election announcement, has pardoned several well-known Republican criminals, including Bill O’Reilly (imprisoned for illegally obtaining abortion clinic patient records), Donald Rumsfeld (who along with Dick Cheney was nailed for racketeering and embezzlement during the Iraq Reconstruction Project — see this link for background on the Bill of Hope), and several other small-time Republican crooks. Notably absent from the list was Senator Tom DeLay.

Press Secretary Aaron Sorkin today said Gore is doing this as part of national reconciliation efforts that began when Republicans were routinely put in prison back in 2001, when Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris were thrown in jail for vote fraud.

He is also offering “limited amnesty” to Republican sex offenders who have not yet been apprehended and who come forward and show a willingness to adhere to a GPS-based tracking system, and who voluntarily submit to psychological counseling. Insiders say that the reasons for this are more practical than a simple desire for national reconciliation. “Our medium security prisons just don’t have enough room for all the offenders,” says one official close to the administration.

In fact, prison overcrowding has again become a major issue, in spite of recent changes in criminal drug laws that no longer mandate imprisonment for minor drug offenses and have returned the focus to drug rehabilitation. Studies are beginning to pour in showing that, since the crackdown on Republican corruption, the prison population once dominated by drug offenders and minorities is being replaced by Republicans.

With the mid-term elections tomorrow, and the nation enjoying unprecedented peace and prosperity, electoral interest seems to be at an all time low, and Gore appears to be trying to remind voters why he was re-elected in the first place. While neocons refer to Gore as “the appeasement president”, the fact is that Gore has become a world leader based on his skills at managing reconciliation on a global level, while driving successful worldwide anti-poverty and environmental programs. He has, in other words, not only not squandered the good will that wrapped the U.S. in an emotional blanket of sympathy after the 9/11 attacks, he’s capitalized them in a huge way, one that’s easy to take for granted in a less dangerous world.

When things are going well, it’s easy to become complacent, and Gore apparently is trying to find a way to remind voters how dangerous such complacency can be. “It’s really hard for most voters to imagine how bad things could become if the current Republican leadership were ever to take control of the government,” says one Democratic campaign pollster, who is hopeful that the neoconservative wing of the Republican party is finally being dismembered through its delirious combination of sex and corruption scandals, as well as voter antipathy towards the neoconservative doctrine of perpetual war.

Also, in a speech late yesterday, Gore offered what he called some personal advice to the challenger in his first presidential election, George W. Bush. “I think maybe it’s time for George to check himself out of the Betty Ford clinic. He’s been in there, what? Five, six years? I know it was a tough election, but it’s time to move on.”

Iraqi Armed Forces near 300,000 November 3, 2006

Posted by chuckwh in Al Gore, Bits from the New York Times, Foreign Policy, Iraq, Iraq army, Iraq War, News and politics.
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In an article for the journal, Military Review, U.S. Lt. Col. Karl D. Grunowoski writes that the Iraqi Army is now the largest and most professional service outside of Israel.

Grunowoski, who served as a military adviser in Iraq for three years, says that under Saddam, the Iraqi military was already “reasonably disciplined”, but that the force is now capable of invading and conquering another nation with “a well maintained, modern force of its own.”

President Gore has come under fire for helping Iraq transition from a dictatorship to a democracy from both the left and the right. The left is unhappy that Gore is helping the military infrastructure, and the right is unhappy that the military infrastructure Gore is helping is an Arab one. Somehow, conservatives see a threat to Israel.

However, Gore rightly promotes the notion of a strong Iraqi army as nothing more than a “national defense force”, because it has, basically, no air force.

In other words, Grunowoski is wrong. The reason, from a military standpoint, is fairly simple to grasp. You can’t invade anyone these days, without a pretty decent air force.

If the Iraqis need air power, under a treaty signed by the Iraqis and the U.S., America will provide it, which pretty much leaves Israel out of the equation. Israel, obviously, is not going to attack Iraq for any reason, and the treaty specifically stipulates that an Iraqi “invasion against any sovereign state” will not be supported with American air power.

With Saddam out of the picture, the list of candidate nations for an Iraqi invasion have dwindled to about zero. The booming oil fields near Basra and Mosul (1) have made most Iraqis rich, and Saddam’s claims that Kuwait is a province of Iraq is now just a small footnote in the type of history only PhD candidates have enough staying power for.

Iraqi motivation for a large “internal” army is centered on internal politics, specifically, as a counterforce to the extreme fanatics who still cling to the hope their voice will be heard, and who tend to pick on Iraq because of its recent close association with America.

Let’s face it, the transition of Muslim fanaticism to the fringes has not been a delicate one. Recent reports suggest that Baghdad has become another Ulster, except for one key difference: Ulster was about a population that felt subjugated, whereas in Baghdad, most people just aren’t that interested in the extreme politics of the Fedayeen, and actually, simply feel victimized by them.

The recent spate of suicide bombings don’t, if you read Iraqi blogs, reveal the will of the people. A defense force capable of doing simple things, such as enforcing curfews, when needed, is not a bad thing. Given the behavior of the Fedayeen, another 200,000 would not be a bad thing either.

1. For a real look at just how deeply buried in oil fields Iraq is, and how silly it would be for a country to be dumb enough to conquer Iraq and not find a way to make the people that nation conquered  REALLY happy (not that such an event is a likely scenario, of course), see this map.

Gore to Propose “Green Zone” for Iraq October 22, 2006

Posted by chuckwh in Al Gore, Environmentalism, George W. Bush, Gore, green zone, Iraq, News and politics, Politics.
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Word just in that the Gore Administration is going to propose a “Green Zone” for central Baghdad similar to Green Zones that have been started in several other urban zones in the developing world.

The Bagdhad Green Zone will, like other Green Zones, be backed by the Kyoto Initiative, which is a recently signed addendum to the Kyoto Treaty that provides funding for environmental initiatives in the developing world, especially the fast growing ones that need it most.

The Green Zone will power downtown Baghdad with nothing but renewable energy, and will initiate a tree planting program similar to the one Chicago mayor Rich Daly helped push in Chicago.

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Republicans Gear Up Their Media Fear Machine October 21, 2006

Posted by chuckwh in 9-11, Al Gore, Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, Foreign Policy, George W. Bush, Gore, Haliburton, Iraq, Law & Politics, Neo-cons, Neo-conservatives, News and politics, Politics, September 11th, September 11th & The War On Terror.
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The Republicans have officially ramped up their fear-based media frenzy by generating ads suggesting we’re all about to die.

You can find one of them here.

As a professional web developer, I ask this simple question. Do you really trust a party that uses Dreamweaver to write its scripting code to tackle such potential horrors as dirty suitcase bombs?

How do you know they’re using Dreamweaver? Easy, just do a view source and see the ubiquitous Macromedia function MM_swapImgRestore() littering the HTML code. Now, there’s nothing wrong with amateurs using Dreamweaver to crank out a site, but do we want the Republicans to hire amateurs to run a war? If they can’t come up with the technical resources to do a web site properly, how in the name of fat hypocrisy can we expect them to run a war if they somehow get the presidency back?

You think the connection is off the wall? Well, just, for a moment, let’s come up with a preposterous scenario.

Imagine, for a moment, that Bush had beaten Gore in the presidential race of 2000. Now, imagine that instead of engaging the Middle East with diplomacy and, essentially, winning the “war” on terrorism (as summed up here) Bush had done something crazy, like invade, oh, I dunno, just for the sake of argument, maybe Iraq. Who knows why, but just bear with me for a moment. For me, it’s almost as easy to then imagine other weird scenarios. You know, like the U.S. drives into Baghdad, quickly routs the hapless Iraqi army, then disbands it and allows a massive looting spree where all kinds of nasty weapons are squirrelled away.

Okay, granted, I do have an over-active imagination. You have to sort of clear all reason from your mind to imagine such a scenario, but if you saw the job Bush did in Texas and, generally, what a dunderhead he is in general, you begin to realize that, by golly, anything is possible, had he won.

Understanding that Bush would have probably included guys like Paul Wolfowitz in his cabinet makes me think even greater disasters would have been possible, had he been elected. Keep in mind that in February 1992, Wolfowitz’s henchmen drafted an American defense policy that called for the United States to brandish its military might aggressively and persistently. The policy was too chilling even for Republicans, and it was dropped, but George Bush Sr.’s well known phrase “New World Order” came largely from that document, as did, later, the Project for the New American Century, of which several dedicated neo-cons were a part of, including Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Jeb Bush, and Wolfowitz.

In fact, way back in the day Bill Clinton was in office, the neo-cons officially urged an invasion of Iraq.

Still think the whole idea is silly?

See? This is what happens when we become complacent during times of peace and economic prosperity.

Gotta watch that. It’s dangerous business, this complacency.

Okay, so let’s just say their man had won. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that their man, he of a somewhat dim mind, would have played catch with these fellas.

Now, chances are, these neo-cons would not have thought out the prospects for an invasion of Iraq. Even if they did know the difference between a Sunni and Shi’ite, neo-cons are, basically, and simply, warlike. And arrogant. They probably felt that if Saddam could contain the two groups, the U.S. certainly could. As preposterous as it sounds, they probably would have done something completely outrageous, even after winning the initial phases of the war. Who knows what? But something. Maybe they would have relied on patronage to manage the rebuilding process instead of using local civil engineering firms. After all, you can bet that any invasion would have really torched the Iraqi infrastructure. Everything from electrical grids to oil fields would need to be rebuilt.

Who knows, maybe after beating up on the Iraqi army these clowns would even disband it, letting them roam the streets penniless, hungry, and angry.

I know how silly and impossible this all sounds.

Today, Iraq is a study in possibilities, a thriving regional economic power whose biggest problem is the restive Kurds, who want to finish the job of autonomy and become an independent state, but who are not so restive as to take up arms.

But still, these are people whose idea of technical competence is using Dreamweaver on their web site. If that’s the kind of technical competence the GOP has on hand, had Bush been elected and had done the neo-cons’ bidding, I bet they couldn’t have even kept the electricity on in Baghdad for more than a few hours a day, had they been foolish enough to invade.

But the most chilling aspect about their incompetence is their fuzzy knowledge of world affairs. If they thought Iraq was okay to invade, then who would be next? Syria? Or, even more incredible, Iran? Let the dominoes fall, right fellas? Geniuses, all of them.

All of this would have given birth to an army of new terrorists. I suspect if we had invaded Iraq, that nation would have become an Al Queda playground, where American troops would have been engaged in a horrible guerrilla war, with red big targets on their humvees the size of Dick Cheney’s massive butt.

If the U.S. had then moved on to Iran, then we really would have been talking about the very real possibility of a nuclear terrorist incident in the U.S.

And that, my friends, is something the GOP doesn’t talk about in its ad.

Luckily, this is just a nightmare scenario. The kind of thing we only think about as the autumn skies turn grey and the void between life and death, as represented by old Gaelic beliefs of Halloween, approach.

A Belated 9/11 5th Anniversary Post October 14, 2006

Posted by chuckwh in 9-11, Al Gore, Bits from the New York Times, Bush, death, firefighters, Foreign Policy, George W. Bush, Gore, Iraq, Marshall Plan, New York Times, News and politics, Nye, Politics, September 11th, September 11th & The War On Terror, The Washington Post, Washington Post, World Trade Center.
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This is a reprint. The Gore Years Website did not exist during the 9/11 five year anniversary. This was our eulogy, and, in fact, the reason why the site was begun.

Ahmed Ibraim remembers the dark years.

He remembers his friends and neighbors while they were rounded up by Saddam Hussein’s regime. He remembers the air raid sirens blaring at 3 am, and the frantic rush for cover, and, especially, the awful roar of the occasional nearby explosions. He remembers hating America for it all.

A Sunni, Mr. Ahmed today lives in a neighborhood that was, in many ways, spared from Saddam’s dark curtain, and, somehow, most of the bombs Saddam’s regime provoked.

Today, his once dusty neighborhood is replete with schools, busy grocery stores and even an occasional Starbucks. His three children have all passed entrance exams for universities run by a group known as the Hijric Collective, a Muslim group that has taken over management of the educational system. Some say the group is tainted by American imperialism and Zionism, but the Hijric is so well financed, and most importantly, housed by Imams, paid off or not, that most of the complaints are mere utterances within the confines of local coffee houses.

The fact that the Hijric Collective is funded by numerous Western benefactors is not lost on Mr. Ibraim, but he adorns his skepticism and distrust with the hope that his children will have a better life than he could have hoped for.

Such is life in modern Iraq, a diffused land that has somehow, despite geopolitics, demonstrated that the concept of civics is a real one, and that disparate groups like Sunnis, Shi’a and Kurds can choose to overcome extreme pasts even in a place as haunted as the world of Middle Eastern politics.

Mr. Ahmed is a typical Iraqi working man. A carpenter by trade, he spends hours at lunch time with his friends dissecting politics not only concerning his land, but America as well.
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